Dear Sir Mike,
I read your recent speech to the CBI’s annual dinner with bemusement. Putting aside the CBI’s appalling track record on key policy matters (support for the UK membership of the euro, for example) or the fact that business is divided on the pros and cons of full EU membership (note Lord Bamford’s intervention), your assessment of the UK, the EU and the global economy is, quite simply, more than a generation out of date.
It is a truism to say the global economy is changing fundamentally. But, crucially, the EU’s share is in secular decline. In 1980 the EU28’s share of world GDP was over 30 per cent of world GDP (Purchasing Power Parity terms), which had fallen to 24 per cent by 2000 and was just over 17 per cent in 2014. Its decline can only continue, reflecting mature markets and adverse demographics in key EU economies. Growth markets, so crucial for internationally focussed British firms, will overwhelmingly be located outside the EU.
April: Neither Democrats nor Liberal, Dr Sheila Lawlor
March: Productivity and Growth: Priorities for the new Parliament by Dr Gerard Lyons, Friday 20th March
February: Immigration Matters, Dr Sheila Lawlor, Friday 27th February
January: No Easy Solution?, Professor Robert Tombs on the Charlie Hebdo shooting, Friday 9th January
December: Reform of Renegotiation?, Lord Howell of Guidlford, Friday 12th December
November: Hard-Edged’ Partnerships - Whose education benefits? by Prof Peter Luxton, 28th November
October: An End to NHS Consensus! by Dr Tony Hockley (Friday 24th October)
September: Sound Bite Socialism Brings Cold Comfort by Sheila Lawlor (Friday 19th)